Pro-climate government officials and environmental activists are strategizing to prevent a second Donald Trump presidency, which they fear could derail their efforts to combat climate change. Their main strategy is hoping for a Kamala Harris victory in the next U.S. election. Many believe winning the election is the most important step for the Democrats to maintain progress on climate policies. Catherine McKenna, Canada’s former environment and climate minister, emphasized that the climate community is still haunted by the impact of Trump’s first term.
At the recent United Nations General Assembly and Climate Week events in New York, leaders, diplomats, and green advocates avoided discussing Trump’s possible return. However, they acknowledge that the global climate movement will face serious obstacles if Trump wins. As the largest economy and the biggest historical polluter of greenhouse gases, the U.S. plays a crucial role in climate negotiations. Trump has already vowed to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement again, which could happen more quickly than before, leaving the world with even fewer years to avoid climate catastrophe.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said that “climate is on the ballot with Kamala Harris,” urging voters who care about the environment to support her. Given the world’s shrinking timeline to avoid dangerous climate tipping points, Trump’s return to the White House would pose an even bigger threat than his first term.
If Trump wins, it will be nearly impossible for other countries to keep the U.S. engaged in international climate agreements. The Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is non-binding and relies on diplomatic pressure rather than strict enforcement. Todd Stern, who led U.S. climate negotiations during the Obama administration, predicts that Trump would withdraw the U.S. from the agreement again, with no clear plan in place to counter this move.
Beyond pulling out of the Paris Agreement, Trump has criticized President Joe Biden’s climate policies, calling them a “scam,” and has promised to cut funding for Biden’s climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA has provided significant subsidies and incentives for clean energy investments, which have sparked economic growth in both Republican and Democratic regions. Many business leaders doubt Trump would completely roll back the IRA, but they fear that his return would hurt international cooperation, especially with high-emitting countries like China and India.
John Morton, a former climate official in the Treasury Department, warned that a U.S. pullback under Trump would lower the importance of climate issues in the minds of other global leaders, potentially slowing international efforts to combat climate change. Trump has not ruled out withdrawing from the broader 1992 U.N. treaty that supports international climate negotiations, which could further isolate the U.S. from global climate discussions.
Despite these challenges, some U.S. officials are confident that Biden’s climate policies, especially the IRA, have created a solid foundation for continued progress. Governors and mayors have pledged to step up if Trump returns to office, just as they did during his first term. Leaders from other countries, including China and the European Union, are also preparing for the possibility of having to fill the leadership gap left by the U.S. if Trump withdraws from international climate agreements.
Environmental activists are focused on both the national and local levels to maintain progress. While many hope for a Harris victory, long-time climate advocate Kumi Naidoo emphasizes the importance of grassroots efforts. He believes that cities, states, civil society, and faith organizations must continue to push for climate action, regardless of who is in the White House.
The upcoming election will have a significant impact on global climate policy. Whether the U.S. continues to lead or steps back from its role in fighting climate change depends heavily on the outcome, with many in the climate community anxiously watching the political developments unfold.
